Revolutions as Dominoes

The events in North Africa over the last two months have been a surprise to most.  Just as in 1989, when nobody could have predicted the imminent fall of the Berlin Wall and the ensuing collapse of European communism and its ramifications for Central and Eastern Europe, eventually the Soviet Union and more globally, the Cold War itself.  So, as in 1989, will the tremors reverberate further than the immediate region? 

One thing that all these popular uprisings have in common is that they are fundamentally opposed to long-standing leaders and their regimes.  They are not necessarily fighting against an (common) ideology, as was the case in the 1980s.  For this reason it is of interest to look at another region, which houses long-term leaders: Central Asia.

Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have leaders who have reigned since the end of the Soviet Union.  Turkmenistan would have been in the same position had former leader Saparmurat Niyazov not died in 2006, allowing the current incumbent to take office.

Given the region’s huge geo-political importance, buffered as it is between Russia to the North, China to the East, Iran to the South-West and Afghanistan and Pakistan to the South-East, with India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on the periphery coupled with the enormous amount of natural resources, which are located there, perhaps more attention should be afforded to the possible relationship between what’s happening in North Africa and the political situation in Central Asia.  Political upheaval in the region has the potential to bring all of the aforesaid powers into play.