Conflict by Proxy

Perhaps the most important or significant Middle-East uprising occurring currently is in Bahrain where protests are largely based upon Shiite discontent within a Sunni-governed State.    Importance cannot be withdrawn from Libya, which is one of the world’s ten richest oil-producing countries, in the throws of civil strife, nor Egypt, which is home to the Suez Canal and is of huge geo-political importance, and neither Tunisia where it all began back in December 2010.  Protest in Yemen and stirrings in Algeria, Jordan, Oman and Syria are all substantial developments additionally.  However, the tiny island-State of Bahrain is fast becoming a proxy conflict between a Shia Iran and a predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia. 

The recent deployment of Saudi military hardware and personnel onto Bahraini sovereign territory goes some way in accounting for this.  Iranian designs to dominate the gulf area are long-standing, dating back to the pre-1979 era.  With the US Navy’s 5^th Fleet stationed in Bahrain, it is seen in Tehran to be of interest to back the protestors in order to gain a more advanced political stronghold and a possible removal of American military presence.

What are the advantages of a Bahraini proxy conflict and why is it being generated?  For Iran, it could allow for a spread of influence in the region, with aims to establish and cement hegemonic status in the Gulf.  For the US, it may allow Iran to become bogged-down in a long, drawn-out, albeit, cold conflict, which could take away focus and resources from Afghanistan and Iraq.  It would also increase US military spending and maintain a steady flow of oil from the Arabian Peninsula.  For Saudi Arabia, it may be possible to maintain the current Bahraini leadership (though this appears less likely as time passes and violence increases) and consolidate US-Saudi interests.  For the Bahraini Shias (as well as non-Shias), there seems to be little or no advantage for a proxy conflict.

History relates that proxy conflict has the potential to be extremely prolonged and/or detrimental to the local population (examples include the Korean War: 1950-1953 and the US economic embargo against Cuba: 1962-present).  It will be of interest to monitor and investigate further developments and see whether or not some form of proxy conflict does arise.